Home > La Liga > La Liga: What’s Changed in the Title Race this Season?

La Liga: What’s Changed in the Title Race this Season?

As we draw towards the tail end of the Spanish Primera División, Real Madrid continue to set the pace with what could be a record-breaking season. Leading their bitter rivals, Barcelona, by 8 points, they are on course to win their first title since 2007/8, and go on to record the most points ever made in a single La Liga season, as well as most away wins and overall goals. Looking at those stats, it is all the most impressive considering that Jose Mourinho’s Los Merengues are trailblazing at a time when experts are debating whether the current Barcelona side, under Pep Guardiola, is worthy of being considered the greatest club side ever on the back of their recent achievements.

If anyone claims to have the definitive answer as to why Barcelona trail Real Madrid by such a significant gap, they’re lying. With the smallest of margins deciding who wins what, it would be useful to look at a number of the “small marginal changes” that have occurred this season, in order to draw certain factual conclusions, without leaving room to speculation.

Possession and Tiki-Taka

That’s the name of the game for Barcelona. Its been a cornerstone of their success under Guardiola. They averaged just over 72% of the ball last season, but are currently averaging “only” 70% this time around. Yes, you read that right, only 70%! Whilst it may not seem like much, at the summit of the game the difference between great and perfect is slim, especially if it’s a backwards step. They’re currently averaging 68% possession away from home, which is 3.5% less than last season. In terms of pass success ratio, they’ve slightly dropped off to 89% from an incredible 90% success ratio.

Real Madrid, on the other hand, have increased their possession of the ball by 5% to 61%. Their pass accuracy has also increased to 85% from 83%. Whilst Barcelona’s slight drop-off may not seem significant, as they are having a “relatively” successful season in the league by most standards other than their own, in a league where “draws are the new defeats” the margins are tight. Real Madrid’s improvement is a sure sign towards becoming more dominant and ruthless.

Score Goals When They Matter

Last season, La Liga ended with Real Madrid losing the race by 4 points. They scored more goals than Barcelona to no avail. They even drew one less match than Barcelona had. However, the key statistic that cost Mourinho’s side was their failure to score goals in key moments. Simply put, Real Madrid failed to score in 6 out of their 38 matches. They drew 3 of those games and lost the other 3. In the tightest of leagues, the slightest margin counts big and despite Cristiano Ronaldo’s record-breaking 40 goals as well as the side scoring an amazing 102 goals, it proved costly. Barcelona only failed to score twice.

This season has seen Real Madrid become more ruthless in front of goal. After 26 rounds of games, they have only failed to score twice. In theory, they may fail to score in a number of games till the end of the season and that could very well cost them a title. Barcelona have failed to score in 3 matches, effectively 1 more time in 11 less matches. So it may not be as much about Barcelona’s failings as much as it is about Real Madrid rectifying one of their few “failings”.

A Game of Two Halves, or at least the Second Half

Barcelona are notoriously strong starters to matches. Turn on the TV 15 minutes late and its likely you have missed a goal or two. Last season, they were 8-0 (goals scored-goals conceded) during the first 15 minutes of matches, and they are just as dominant again this season with a 14-4 record in the early stages of games. In fact, Barcelona usually have matches sewn up by the end of the first half. They had a 42-8 record last season. This season, they have an identical first half record even though there are still 11 matches to go. That’s quite significantly different to Real Madrid who have been poor starters to matches, especially this season. They have an 8-6 record in the opening 15 minutes of games, even though, strikingly, they get stronger as the half goes on. Away from home, they’ve only conceded two goals in the first half of games all season long.

It’s in the second half of games where Barcelona have found trouble and Real Madrid have found extra gears. Barcelona have a relatively poor first 15 minutes of the second half with a 12-5 record, already conceding more goals during that period compared to the whole of last season. However, it’s the final 15 minutes of the game, away from home, when Barcelona are at their most vulnerable. They have an 11-8 record during that period. It may still be a “winning” record, but as stated numerous times before, in a league of fine margins the smallest elements can sway a title race. Last season, for instance, the champions had a 21-5 record away from home during the last 15 minutes. Real Madrid, on the other hand, perform even better in second halves of games. They have scored an amazing 53 goals in the second half, conceding only 13. Last season, they “only” scored 56 goals, whilst conceding 26. Even more impressive is the way Mourinho’s side close out matches. They have a 17-3 record in the last 15 minutes of matches, as opposed to the 21-9 accumulated through the whole of the previous campaign. Conceding so late against Malaga at home cost Real Madrid 2 valuable points, and the side will rue giving away a free-kick in a dangerous position in stoppage time.

Much credit must go to the mental strength that Mourinho has instilled into his players to keep on pushing until the final whistle. The levels of concentration they’ve kept has minimized individual errors late in games too. The hunger is also there to want more goals even when the game is won, a criticism which is sometimes, possibly unjustly, aimed at Barcelona.

Resilience

Speaking about mental strength and concentration, Mourinho has instilled a “never say die” attitude in his players giving them the belief that they can come back from any deficit. Guardiola’s side have been relatively lax at times this season. They have twice lost half-time leads to end up drawing. Real Madrid almost always win when leading at half time, with Malaga being the only side in 2 years to avoid defeat at full time, after trailing at half time. Going back to last season, Barcelona, drew once and lost once after leading at half time, winning the other 21 occasions. Real Madrid, once again in resilience in the image of their manager, converted all 21 half-time leads to victories.

Mourinho has instilled a never-say-die attitude in his players

Even more surprisingly is how a team reacts to going a goal down. In Barcelona’s case, not too well. They have only won twice after conceding the first goal, drawing two and losing a further two. Real Madrid, on the other hand, lost only once after conceding the first goal as they recovered to win 7 times. They have also won by a one-goal margin on 6 occasions this season. Winning by one-goal is their most common type of victory. This is not say that they Real Madrid do not go on to romp opponents too. They have won by a margin of 3 goals or more in 13 matches, virtually half of their current La Liga games.

The Players

Every Barcelona and Real Madrid comparison has a Messi/Cristiano Ronaldo comparison at some point. Its pointless. There is nothing to add to what has already been said. Both players post incredible numbers and performances match after match. When everything is so tight between the two clubs, it may come down to one or two other players standing out more or less than they have before. But when we’re talking about almost 30 international players, consistency is usually a key constant. But not always.

Last season, Karim Benzema was on the verge of being let go of. He was even compared to a cat by his manager. Mourinho said he was overweight. He said he didn’t work hard enough. Nevertheless, he did end up scoring 15 goals, but at a key point of the season, Mourinho preferred to not play with Benzema even in an injury crisis. Gonzalo Higuain had an injury hit season too. It was largely hit and miss, but he ended up scoring 10 league goals. Between them, they started 36 matches in La Liga, and scored “only” 25 goals. Its a goal scoring record good enough at almost every club but not at Real Madrid and not when the margins are so close.

This season, Benzema, having shed a few pounds, and Higuain have had a healthy competition. What is more striking is that Mourinho has gotten both of them motivated and willing to rotate, largely irrespective of performance, as they’ve both been in fine form. They have started 29 league games between each other and have scored more than a goal a game, with a total of 31, a record, had it been owned by only one of them, on par with Messrs Messi and Ronaldo. Whenever one has tailed off the other has been ready to come on and make an impact.

Why have one when you can have both? Benzema and Higuain key actors in Real Madrid's improvement this season

Similarly, Angel Di Maria, has had an excellent season, even though he has virtually missed half of it. Despite starting only 12 matches, he’s already matched his goal/assist record from last year. He’d scored 5 and laid off another 13 before his injury, compared to 6 goals and 11 assists in 29 starts last year. Once again, Mourinho has managed to get an extra something from a player who had been criticized for his diving, play-acting and inability to perform consistently. His injury has meant that Kaka has gotten an unexpected opportunity and even though he isn’t the same player he was at his peak, he’s looked very useful for Real Madrid. In fact, Mourinho has said he’s never seen Kaka work harder for any team. He’s pitched in with 5 goals and 6 assists in only 14 starts this season.

On the other side of the spectrum, Barcelona have suffered with numerous injuries this season. Long-term victims include David Villa, Ibrahim Afellay and now, most worryingly, Eric Abidal requires a liver transplant. Carles Puyol has not been fully fit either and that has pressured Guardiola into selectively picking him for games, a fact which has not helped the captain gain consistency or hit top form. Alexis Sanchez, one of the club’s big summer signings, has only started 13 times, pitching in with 8 goals and 3 assists. Had he been fit throughout the season, he would’ve made Villa’s injury feel less influential. Going back to Puyol’s injury problems, even though they are nothing new, the main difference compared to last season was that Gerard Pique had been largely playing at the top of his game.

Guardiola has faced an injury crisis this season

This season, though, Pique, has found himself at the center of huge criticism, due to his dip in form. A pre-season which was hampered by injury as well as questions about his concentration on the pitch have meant that Pique, more than anyone, has missed Puyol. Pique has started only 13 times this season (29 starts last season), less than half of all of Barcelona’s matches. Most of the time he has been out injured but on a few occasions, mostly recently, he has been kept out of the side, even when Puyol has not been available. His tackle, interception and clearance figures have all dropped compared to last season by 0.3, 0.7 and 1.2 per game respectively to stand at 1.4, 1.2 and 2.4 per game (WhoScored). Most strikingly he has made 24 less passes per game this season than last. Guardiola has been lucky to have Javier Mascherano step into central defence and perform so admirably. On performance, Mascherano is, arguably, in the La Liga Team of the Season. His figures, in contrast to Piques, stand at a 3.7 tackles (a league high for center backs), 3.7 interceptions and 2.2 clearances per game. Nevertheless, “losing” both Pique and Puyol this season has hurt Barcelona, and they have conceded more goals as a result. A further dip in form for Pedro has only been compensated by recent emergences of Isaac Cuenca and Cristian Tello, both ahead of schedule, as well as the goals which Cesc Fabregas has been scoring.

All in all, while Real Madrid have had players like Kaka and Callejon ready to step in for the likes of Di Maria without hampering the team’s performance, Barcelona have not been lucky through a series of injuries, as well as, what must be said, an over-rotation of some players by Guardiola for the first time. Burn-out after playing over 60 matches for 3 consecutive seasons may have finally caught up with them.

Concluding Remarks

It is difficult to pin-point exactly what has been the catalyst for the relative shift in the fortunes of both clubs domestically and one must be wary when drawing conclusions. Despite the so-called “crisis” for Guardiola’s side, they convincingly beat Real Madrid in La Liga, after going behind with an early goal, picked up the Supercopa de España over Real Madrid in August 2011, won the European Supercup, the World Club Cup and knocked Mourinho’s side out of the Copa del Rey, with what included another away win in Madrid. Whilst Real Madrid have looked “better” against Barcelona this season than previously, the end result has largely been the same. Other than a nervous final 15 minutes at Camp Nou in the return leg of the Copa del Rey, where Real Madrid looked the more likelier side to net a winner, Barcelona have enjoyed another season with the upper hand in head-to-head meetings. Nevertheless, the capital club have been the more consistent side in the league due to some of the reasons highlighted above.

We’ve looked at what has changed more than why it’s changed because that would require deeper analysis over a longer period of time, possibly in the post-Mourinho and post-Guardiola periods. Nevertheless, two of the key themes of this article have been words like “relative” and “margin”. In what is an historic period for La Liga, the smallest of margins can be the difference between success and failure as Real Madrid found out last season, whilst Barcelona are finding out, to their dismay, now.

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  1. Patric
    March 19, 2012 at 4:54 PM

    Madrid are a mediocre team. Their lead by 8 points has only one reason, which the author tries to avoid by focusing on meaningless stats: the many crucial refereeing decisions against Barcelona or in favor of Madrid. Respect for the work put in this though.

    • March 19, 2012 at 4:58 PM

      Patrick, I highly doubt the majority of readers would agree with you and disregard everything else mentioned here. Yes refereeing decisions may have favored Real Madrid especially in awarding of a few penalties, BUT to call them mediocre is just not accepting the fact that they have come forward leaps and bounds and are breaking records doing so.

    • Molecule
      March 20, 2012 at 6:13 AM

      I would agree that Madrid’s lead over Barca does not accurately reflect their relative performance on the pitch this season, but only an idiot could seriously argue that Madrid are a “mediocre” team. They are a fantastic team, who have additionally had the benefit of a number of dubious refereeing decisions this year. I don’t think they’re better than Barca yet, but they’re certainly much better this year than last, and I think they’re clearly the best opponent Barca is likely to face this year.

      • March 20, 2012 at 9:44 AM

        Molecule, I dont think anyone has said they’re better than Barcelona. In fact, Barcelona dominating them in head to heads has been highlighted.

        Randolph, can’t disagree too much on that.

        Shy, agreed.

  2. March 19, 2012 at 8:57 PM

    Stats tell half of the story. Barca have won the league in the past 3 seasons, broke every record, played a kind of football that had never been seen anywhere and beat Madrid in all the legs. Surely, how much more could we ask from them? It’s obvious that the motivation would drop. True, Real have been terrific this season but there’s hardly a difference from what they were doing last season. The fact that Barca won at the Benabeu in the 1st clasico pours cold water on everything they’re doing this season; deep down the hearts of the madridistas, from Perez to Marca and AS, nothing has been done yet; TO STOP BARCA.
    Lets try to look at Barca closely. This season they’re fielded more B team players than last season and they’ve experimented formations, of course to accommodate Cesc and Alexis. Real have hardly played a different starting XI and a different formation from the one we’ll know. Their major recruits last summer; Sahin and Varane (both very excellent players) have hardly got a game. Real have not changed from last season; maybe picking up more wins and dropping less points. For Barca, this season was to re brand themselves (which means inconsistency in many areas) whilst maintaining their status, which i would say, they’ve partly achieved.

    • March 20, 2012 at 12:35 AM

      David,

      1) We aren’t talking about Barcelona’s undoubted success but rather things which have “changed” which go some way in allowing us to understand the reversal in fortunes in La Liga.
      2) We don’t want to speculate about motivation. We won’t know. We can’t know. I highly doubt it though as they always look up for it when it counts.
      3) We can’t say there is hardly a difference between this season and last for RM. They are more lethal and more ruthless, score more goals, rarely ever NOT score. These are all changes.
      4) I’ve explained the injury/rotation aspect which you mentioned.
      5) Like I said throughout the article, Barcelona have been successful but we its a relative “dip” which is being blown over into crisis in some quarters.

  3. Adams Sibley
    March 20, 2012 at 1:01 AM

    One thing worth mentioning, believe it or not, is shots off the woodwork. I can’t cite the statistic because I don’t remember where it came from, but Barcelona have lost some 8 or 10 points due to shots that hit the post but didn’t go in. In other words, they drew or lost several matches because shots were two inches to the left or right.

    It just goes to show you that, even with a gap as large as 8 points, the difference between winning the league and coming in second can be measured in centimeters!

    Barca have an uphill battle in the league for sure. It’s Madrid’s to lose. I think it’ll be good for La Liga to see a new champion.

    • March 20, 2012 at 1:03 AM

      We did use the term “small margins” many times throughout the article for these sort of reasons! 🙂

    • Jack Publisher
      March 20, 2012 at 6:57 PM

      21 times last I heard, tied with Liverpool for most in Europe

  4. Marco
    March 20, 2012 at 2:35 AM

    2inches left or right? … 2inches left it goes in 2 inches right it misses the post completely and goes wide? ..if it was not for some of Ronaldo’s away goals it would be much tighter points wise

    • March 20, 2012 at 2:52 AM

      Hence the key terms of the article being “margins” and “relative”!

  5. FCBarca
    March 20, 2012 at 3:06 AM

    Refereeing and the Portuguese mafia, it’s simple

  6. Randolph
    March 20, 2012 at 4:14 AM

    Great work, Babak. Madrid’s stats are incredible but when the chips have been down – at Mallorca, Getafe, Rayo and Betis – the refs have helped them.

  7. shy
    March 20, 2012 at 8:39 AM

    Madrid works harder than previous season but it will leave a sour taste in their mouth winning the league without beating barca. Barca experimentation with different formation and injuries has cost them some points on the road..
    Laliga is a two-horse race,it is a madrid season to throw away.

  8. laurentiu
    March 20, 2012 at 12:06 PM

    Very good article.

    one question thou’. the data points to some crude facts. but your inference, like ‘JM has instilled a never-die attitude’ is not supported by this data. RM has improved. On the question of what caused it you must test against the data different hypothesis: higher no of penalty awarded? no. of cards for the team and the team against? (could be revealing)

    great post again!

    • March 20, 2012 at 12:10 PM

      Thank you.

      The Mourinho comment is based upon the stats provided. RM have come back from conceding the first goal by winning 7 games out of the 8 times they trailed opponents. Also, they’ve won 6 games by a 1-goal margin and have dominated opponents during the last 15 minutes of match, where they enjoy their best period of every match.

      I didnt want to get into contentious issues such as correct penalty decisions as that moves towards a matter of opinion in a number of cases.

      • Samwise
        March 20, 2012 at 3:53 PM

        not wanting to go into contentious issues loses a large aspect of the point you are making though. before the betis game, the previous three occassions when madrid went a goal down, the ref sent off an opposition player and awarded a penalty. whether justly, or unjustly this gives madrid a massive benefit to overturn a defecit.
        great article though and i understand the attempt to stay objective, but some points need to be considered however contentious they are.

  9. Sal
    March 20, 2012 at 3:58 PM

    Like many have said before, Real Madrid have a had a lot of dubious dicisions go their way, with the refs helping them a lot this season. While refs have failed to award Barca numerous penalties. Furthermore, Real haven’t been really tested yet this season. Their only real test was Barca and they failed it time and again. That is why a lot of people are looking forward to the potential clash with Bayern Munich. This game againist the likes of Ribery, Gomez and Robben, will show us what Real is really worth. Real under Mourinhio have managed to always escape the big guns like ‘Inter Milan’, Bayern, ManU, Mancity, Chelsea, AC Milan etc… .

    • Dachchu
      March 20, 2012 at 4:35 PM

      Oh my! just saw your piece after i posted mine couldnt agree less. You are spot on.

      • March 20, 2012 at 4:43 PM

        Just to go through some of your comments.

        Sal, similar arguments made by RM towards Barcelona. Rightly or wrongly, the title will be won on the pitch. Yes there are consequences to decisions and some of RM’s “penalties” have been dubious to say the least, but as you can see the point of this article was to lay out some facts on what has changes in both sides to cause the shift at the top of the table. As reiterated many times, every element has been “marginal” and “relative”. Each on their own may not matter but together they’ve created an overall shift. I cant say Real Madrid don’t deserve to be leading the league for all the reasons illustrated in the article. Also the piece is about La Liga not the Champions League. RM have faced the same tests as Barcelona domestically. Bottom line, they’ve come out of those tests a little better this season.

        Steve, I think I’ve alluded to the away “softness” of Barcelona. Messi has scored 41% of FCB’s goals whilst CR has scored 36% of Real Madrid’s goals just FYI. Ive also mentioned Alexis/Pedro/Villa being injured/out of sorts has cost Barcelona.

        Dachchu, not sure about your second comment. You mentioned you saw my piece after your comment and couldnt agree less or more? Otherwise, Im not sure what to say about you disagreeing about Real Madrid being “closest” challengers to Barcelona when you mention Arsenal/Getafe.I think this Real Madrid side is the first one in 4 years that has “genuinely” worried Barcelona or at least had them thinking about them.

      • Dachchu
        March 20, 2012 at 4:54 PM

        I was replying and agreeing with Sal’ comments

    • Joyce Nyakato
      March 20, 2012 at 6:33 PM

      i find yo comment really funny! some barca fans really irk me with their comments. they keep saying madrid beats “easy” teams bla bla blah but fails to beat barca. honestly, it makes more sense for madrid to fail to beat barca and then thrash espagnol than for barca to beat madrid and then lose to getafe.

      SAL u need to snap out of “their real test was barca” fantasy! we are in la liga. Opponents here are not drawn. everyone has to face everyone. and we have faced the same opposition so what is yo excuse of a “real test.”
      in Cl, we were grouped with Lyon and Ajax those r pretty big teams that have been knocking us out previosuly. WHEN madrid wins, the opponents become “easy” while
      whenever Barca lose or draw the “offday” or cold night justifies. and somehow, Madrilenos r machines, when they draw they have been outclassed.

      if a ref fails to award a penalty when u r 3-up no one will care. it only becomes a point of contention after you have drawn or lost. on sunday madrid fans noticed a missed penalty because we drew, had we won, no one would even have thought of it. for the “best” team in the world. u should be having atleast 2-0 leads not to depend on the what-ifs of the referee decisions for results.

      for some reason everyone thinks Madrid will lose at Nou-camp. i wouldnt bet on that seriosuly. this season, we have performed way better at camp nou than our own stadium. i dnt know what the result may be, bt the days of 5-0 and cleansheets in el-classicos seem long gone. this Madrid may be no where near its best but it is certainly better. so sad that u r still hiding under excuses of referees to cover yo poor away form which has been plain for all to see.

      well, i want us to progress to the finals and i will hear yo nest excuse. coz seriously the only team above there that can match up to Madrid is Bayern! chelsea and AC millan, inter r pretty beatable. teams we would beat to pace. i saw Arsenal own Milan and i realised they aint competition at all!

  10. Steve
    March 20, 2012 at 4:19 PM

    I’d point to two things. First, Barca’s form in a number of away games this season has been quite flat, and they’ve paid a price for that. Second, the squad has been way too dependent on Messi for goals. That’s largely because of injuries to Villa and Sanchez and to Pedro’s shaky form, but it’s been a real problem.

  11. Dachchu
    March 20, 2012 at 4:30 PM

    Its seemed to me Barca is being dragged into this analysis just to show how much mourinho had improved the team and not how much madrid as a team has improved. In both cases none for me. Whatever statistics or logic being used, madrid’s best season run was under Pelligrini whether season end or at this stage. Mercifully you didnt infer that Barca’s drop of points was due to “mourinho instilling mental strength and self belief” to European champs and world cup winners or semifinalist but injuries and formations. And while you were at Benzema & Higuain new found goal scoring prowess you should have talked of that of cesc and Xavis’ because it is an improvement to their normal season scores. Madrid has definitely improved but not proportional to their investments and another thing that nobody seem to want to talk on was the fact madrid is yet to play a defending league champion of any of the big leagues to see how they will fare they only had Barca to judge their performance which is average. Saying that they are second best in the world behind Barca of course is unfair to other teams like Arsenal Getafe etc who atleast protect their own backyard against the best team in the world. And pls dont mention the copa del rey triumph i may throw up

    • senjo
      March 20, 2012 at 6:44 PM

      u r forgetting that what is actually what is funny this season is that we seem to be the only team that have stood up to u in your own turf. it’s wierd but thinking of it, our boys perform better at camp nou than at bernabeu. i think Madrid is the only team that has stood to u at your turf..so yes that qailifies them definitely. it beats me how everyone thinks that the next classico is a foregone conclusion coz since 2011 began. Madrid have lost once at camp nou(supercup) for which the winner was scored in the 87th minute.

  12. Kaz
    March 20, 2012 at 4:38 PM

    Well done Babak, another fine article. I think you paint the frame and let others colour in the lines. It is hard to pinpoint the difference but you have to accept that Real had been better over the season. Sometimes the best team doesn’t win the league for a variety of reasons – including luck (Liverpool in their runner up season) but it does say something that Real are posting the kinds of stats that Barca in their best season couldn’t match. If Barca are the greatest of all time, are Real contenders, or at the worst 2nd?

    • March 20, 2012 at 4:45 PM

      Thanks Kaz.

      I don’t think Real Madrid are contenders for anything other than closest current challengers to Barcelona. That’s a different argument to saying they’re the 2nd best side of all time. They need to win the trophies to back that argument. Barcelona have had 13/16 trophies in last 3.5 years + lets not forget 1 CL under Rijkaard, which I would loosely consider as part of this era.

      • Kaz
        March 20, 2012 at 4:48 PM

        Sure, but the team that seems to stop them winning the trophies they’d otherwise win is Barca.

      • March 20, 2012 at 4:51 PM

        That’s not convincing enough, especially as until last season they’d gone out of CL in 2nd Round for almost 10 years! They need to lift the trophies first. Second best doesn’t count for much. Right now, they still haven’t even gotten the better of Barcelona. But by the end of this season, its open to reassessment.

  13. April 9, 2012 at 7:12 PM

    One of the potential reasons for the slight drop in Barca’s possession this season has been the inclusion of both Cesc and particularly Alexis Sanchez coupled with the ability to rotate more and rest Xavi.

    When Xavi does not play, Barca become a little bit more direct and with Sanchez making runs from out to in regularly, the temptation always exists to look for him. SImilarly, Cesc makes a number of driving runs from midfield and again, this more direct style of play, whilst reducing the overall possession stat but once the is refined, it could make Barca a more clinical team with a more varied attack.

  1. March 23, 2012 at 8:34 PM

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