Barcelona’s Lionel Messi continues to break goal-scoring records by the match. His performances have meant that soon enough there will only be his own records to better rather than that of his predecessors. If it wasn’t for the Argentine, Cristiano Ronaldo’s scoring heroics would have had a more long-term place in the record books. At the same time, both Rademel Falcao and Robin van Persie are virtually scoring at a rate of 2 goals every 3 games. There had been a time when scoring 1 goal every 2 games was considered the target for top strikers all over Europe. However, during the past two seasons, the four aforementioned individuals have really raised the bar when it comes to goal scoring. As silly as this may sound, is that group of four simply the most clinical finishers in football? One would be hard-pressed to bite his lip and take a step back and analyze things closely before answering that.
Whilst goals are the single most important measure of a striker’s ability, is it really fair to compare players playing at different clubs, receiving different levels of service and taking a varying amount of shots on goal? In order to fairly assess a striker’s “deadliness” in front of goal, we will take into account two factors. Firstly, we will assess how often the said player has shots on target in respect to the total number of shots he takes. This will reflect their accuracy. Subsequently, we will assess the ratio with which the said player converts the shots on target into goals. Combining the two variables and weighing them according to their importance will provide us with a figure which would reflect their conversion in front of goal. In order retain a level of integrity we will compare strikers across the top four rated leagues in Europe and examine statistics from the 2011/12 season as well as the on-going 2012/13 campaign. We will only consider players who have scored a minimum of 15 league goals during the period in question.
Bear in mind that assessing the difficulty of shooting opportunities no doubt plays a role but due to the intricacy involved and the lack of available data in the public domain, it has not been considered within the methodology of this study. Similarly, one school of thought may suggest that taking into account the amount of time a player’s team is in the opposition’s final third should play an indirect role at the very least. If a player’s side is taking the game to the opposition consistently then the player would be more prepped for taking his chances. However, if the team sits back and hits on the counter then the player’s anticipation and concentration levels must be at a higher than usual level and must be taken into account. This resembles the argument that goalkeeper’s, playing at top clubs, who face one or two opportunities a game must sometimes be heralded as even “better” than a keeper in the thick of the action, due to their higher concentration and motivation levels. But as there is no general consensus on agreeing upon or quantifying this element, it also has been left out, despite having been applied during the research stage of the study. Furthermore, failing to score a certain number of goals at this stage of the current season would count against the culprit, whilst hitting a certain number of shots on target would not go un-noticed.
Ultimately one always wonders how a player would fare had he been receiving the sort of service he would be getting at “insert top of the table club”. The goal of this exercise is to attempt to create a more level playing field when it comes to comparing the finishing ability of players wherever they may be playing.
The Bundesliga has emerged as one of the most exciting leagues in Europe. An excellent ownership structure, financially sound clubs, rising attendances, consistent success on the pitch as illustrated through its gaining of an additional Champions League spot and some of the best young players in all of Europe are just some of the reasons why. Add to that Pep Guardiola’s decision to take over Bayern Munich next season and its easy to see why the spotlight is firmly on the league.
Mario Gomez fulfilled the criteria of the research the best and found himself at the top of the list of clinical finishers in the league over the past 18 months, although his lack of game time this season did count against him on the overall scale of things. In fact, Gomez had the best shots on target ratio between all the players analyzed in all 4 leagues, keeping 59% of his shots on target. His conversion ratio was also impressive, scoring 47% of the time once he had kept the shot on target. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar came second in the Bundesliga, keeping 50% of his shots on target, whilst going on to convert 49% of those chances into goals. However, he has under-performed this season and this counted against him in the final standings. Vedad Ibisevic rounded up the top 3, with Leverkusen’s consistent striker Stefan Keissling coming a close fourth and Robert Lewandowski fifth in the rankings. If the study was simply based upon goals scored then Huntelaar would have finished first, with Lewandowski, and Gomez in second and third place.
In Italy, the man that stood out was Inter Milan’s Argentine striker Diego Milito. He has found a new lease of life during the past 18 months and converted an outstanding 56% of his shots on target into goals. In simple terms, as long as Milito keeps the shot on target then more likely than not he will score. He is 1 of only 2 players in Europe to have that sort of record. Edinson Cavani came in second overall with 46% of his shots on target and 48% of those shots on target converted. Miroslav Klose finished third, converting 49% of his shots on target into goals. Udinese stalwart, Antonio “Toto” Di Natale suprisingly finished a lowly seventh, despite scoring 37 goals during the past 18 months. This was largely due to the fact that he converts a lowly 34% of his on-target shots into goals.
In England, only three of the final nominees break the 50% barrier when it comes to keeping shots on target and they are led by a Manchester United goal-scoring hero. Surprisingly, it is not the United striker you are thinking about. It isn’t even the second United striker that you’re thinking of. It’s Mexican super-sub Javier Hernandez. Chicharito keeps 52% of his shots on target and subsequently goes on to convert 46% of them. Chelsea’s Frank Lampard is the most impressive midfielder in between all the players assessed within any of the leagues. He converts 49% of the chances that he has kept on target. Sunderland’s Steven Fletcher and Swansea’s Spanish talisman Michu fall into the next slots just ahead of Manchester City’s Edin Dzeko who edges in ahead of van Persie, largely due to the fact that he converts a slightly higher percentage of his shots on target into goals. You might be surprised that players like Chelsea’s newly signed Senegalese striker, Dembe Ba, do not possess as good a conversion rate as you would have thought. Ba only converts 35% of his shots on target into goals, a similar figure to England’s Wayne Rooney, although that is still ahead of Fernando Torres who converts only 28% of his shots on target. The Spaniard has the lowest conversion rate between all the players assessed and that reflects some of his tame finishing even when the shots are on target and “test” the opposition goalkeeper.
Liverpool’s Luis Suarez fares even worse than Torres on the overall scheme of things as he only keeps 36% of his shots on target, going on to convert 31% of those into goals. Other players who don’t make the list partly because they failed to hit 15 goals during the period include two English strikers, Danny Welbeck and Daniel Sturridge. Welbeck keeps 41% of his shots on target but only converts 23% of those into goals. Sturridge, who considers himself a center forward keeps 36% of his shots on target and goes on to convert 34% of those opportunities into actual goals.
Last but not least, Spain’s La Liga is home to Europe’s most clinical striker and needless to say he’s Argentine. Chances are 95% of you just named the wrong player. Lionel Messi only comes in second in La Liga’s rankings well behind his compatriot Gonzalo Higuain. Real Madrid’s Higuain is one of only two players in all of Europe who convert into goals more than 50% of the shots they had kept on target. The other, of course, was listed earlier and was Inter’s Diego Milito. Higuain betters Milito’s conversion rate as he scores an incredible 59% of shots that have been kept on target. Lionel Messi comes in second, keeping 56% of his shots on target. What makes that rate even more impressive is the fact that he’s taken over 300 shots in compiling that percentage. His conversion ratio stands at 46% which is still among the highest in Europe, and considering the range of shots he takes might be a little undervalued. Roberto Soldado and Falcao follow in the next two spots. Both have proven to be consistent goal scorers in recent years wherever they have played. Soldado converts 47% of his shots on target into goals, a rate better than four-time Ballon D’Or winner Messi. Cristiano Ronaldo does feature on the list however his numbers are not as impressive as one may have thought. He keeps 44% of his shots on target, no doubt hindered by the fact that he takes so many long range shots. He goes on to convert 35% of his shots on target into goals, possibly slightly hindered by the previous fact again. In terms of midfielders, Barcelona’s Cesc Fabregas has impressive numbers. He keeps 56% of his shots on target, and goes on to convert 38% of them into goals.
Now comes the interesting part where all the numbers are crunched into the formula in order to produce the results. As stated earlier, each factor is giving a weighing variable, and there are points to be gained and lost for the number of shots taken as well as failure to hit certain targets in the current season in order to provide as much balance as possible.
The Top 35
As evident above, Gonzalo Higuain is the undisputed king when it comes to being clinical, finishing on 90 points (from 100). What is telling is that 3 of the top 4 are Argentines, firmly giving the national side a potency that makes them among the favorites to lift the upcoming World Cup in Brazil next year. Mario Gomez (79 points) splits Milito (82) and Messi (78). Although it must be said as the season goes on if Gomez fails to recover from injury he will undoubtedly lose his spot to Messi, even if the Argentine continues at exactly the same ratio as he’s performing.
Whilst the analysis takes into account the factors illustrated above, it has laid the groundwork for more intense research in the future. It is recommended to weigh the difficulty of the type of shots each player has taken.
A special thanks to Follow @liaBIGPUNov for his mathematical and football insight.
As we look back over the past 3 weeks worth of Euro 2012 action, in a tournament where the 4-2-3-1 and variations of it dominated the tactical approach, one has to highlight some of the players and teams that deserve to be recognized and name those who fell from the limelight. The Poland/Ukraine event was one of the first major summer football tournaments to play out under the backdrop of strong social media coverage, as supporters and fans never felt closer to the action, even if they were on the other side of the world.
The tournament started on June 8 when one of the hosts, Poland, took on Euro 2004 winners Greece. During that year, the Greeks beat hosts Portugal in the opening game. This time around they would not be as lucky or as dominant as Borussia Dortmund’s three Polish players, Robert Lewandowski, Lucas Piszczek and Jakub Błaszczykowski starred in a 2-1 victory. The former scored the opening goal whilst Błaszczykowski scored the winner after the Greeks had equalized in the second half. It would turn out that the opening victory would be invaluable for the hosts as they would go into their final game against Czech Republic needing a win after being tied with the Russians on 4 points. Both sides would go on to progress into the Quarter Finals with the Russians, and the ever impressive Roman Shirokov, beating the Greeks 2-0 and finishing as group winners.
In Group B, also known as the “Group of Death”, at least one of 3 traditional power weights would be eliminated. Whilst it was expected that things would go to the wire, the Portuguese national team and their manager Paulo Bento would go into the final group game facing an uphill struggle, which would prove insurmountable. The Germans, surprisingly beaten by the Oranje in their second game, would comfortably qualify with 6 points, but it would not be enough to overhaul the Dutch national side, who powered through with a fresh-looking Ibrahim Afellay tormenting opposition defenders on one wing and Bayern Munich’s Arjen Robben doing the same on the other. The Barcelona winger, Afellay, could have been on his way out of his club but with the tournament he has had, its unlikely that Tito Vilanova would let him go on the cheap. Bert van Maarwijk was blessed with having a player in the caliber of Rafael van Der Vaart coming off the bench to play in a deep lying play-maker role in the second halves of games, giving the Dutch extra class and control in the middle.
Defending champions Spain would continue to struggle breaking down opponents and scoring goals. They would have to rely on solitary goals to beat Croatia and Italy and would top the group despite being held by Ireland. The much hyped Italy vs Trapattoni duel would be a deciding game in the group but Mario Balotelli and Claudio Marchisio scored goals to give the Italians a 2-1 win and confirm their qualification to the Quarter Finals. The Irish went out despite losing only once. Slaven Bilic bowed out as Croatia manager disappointingly at rock bottom.
Roy Hodgson took a page out of Chelsea’s page in his approach to matches. Whilst this was expected against a rampant France side, during the sides opening match of the group, it was received less well by England supporters, more so than the media, during England’s matches against Ukraine and Sweden. Despite the safety first approach, England bowed out disappointingly scoring just 2 goals in the 3 matches, with Andy Carroll and the controversial John Terry scoring them. Laurent Blanc’s France side were the most impressive side of all in the group stage with Frank Ribery and Karim Benzema starring as they took a clean sweep and topped the group with 9 points. Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s Sweden proved to be the consistent tournament side as they once again made an impact and finished 2nd to qualify. Zlatan’s deeper play-maker position, similar to a role he has played with Milan during last season, proved to be fruitful for the national side. Ukraine could not match their co-hosts exploits and bowed out at the group stages with their leaky defence proving to give forward players Yevhen Konoplyanka, Andriy Yarmolenko and Andriy Shevchenko too much work to do.
As the tournament wore on in the Quarter Finals, Jogi Loew’s Germany began to hit levels that they had been expected to reach pre-tournament. Mario Gomez, whose scoring exploits off the bench earlier in the tournament earned him a start ahead of Miroslav Klose against Russia, justified his selection by scoring another goal in a dominant German victory. Shirokov would score again for Russia but this time it would be in vain. In the second Quarter Final, Spain would be pitted against Sweden. Vincente Del Bosque’s side were looking to make it 3-major tournament triumphs in a row, but would find strong opposition from the Swedes, until the game turned on its head when captain and talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic bowed out of international football with a red card. Jordi Alba, impressive at left back and soon to be officially confirmed as a Barcelona player, teed off the vibrant Fernando Torres for the second goal as Spain went on to win 3-1.
In the next Quarter Final, hosts Poland’s fairy tale run would end against the impressive Dutch side led by Robin van Persie’s brace. The 18 year old Jetro Willems continues to impress at left back having been a surprise selection at the time the squads were named in May. Finally, perennial rivals France and Italy would face each other yet again. The marauding right-back Mathieu Debuchy would give two assists as Samir Nasri and Adil Rami scored goals to give France a place in the final 4 and stretch their unbeaten run further.
In the Semi Finals, Germany and Spain would face-off yet again in a major tournament. In what would prove to be the game of the tournament, the Germans would finally emerge victorious through a winner by Bayern Munich’s Thomas Muller in extra time. Once again, the Spaniards found it difficult to add width to their game in a match that closely resembled some of Barcelona’s lower points from the previous season. Despite bringing on Pedro and Jesus Navas, Spain failed to overturn a 2-1 deficit late into the game and would not go on and defend their European title. In the other match, France and Holland would face each other for a place in the Final. The French led by the sublime Ribery would prevail 2-1, having been up 2-0 at half time.
July 1st. Olympic Stadium Kiev. The 31st and final match of the last 16-team European Championships. Germany looking to win their first major trophy since 1996 would face France, arguably the most impressive side at Euro 2012. Six months before the tournament started, the French would not have been considered a serious threat whilst the Germans were neck and neck with the Spaniards as favorites. But how time changes it all. Loew’s side wanted to culminate the renaissance of German football, which started with Jurgen Klinsmann, with a major trophy. The French would put up an excellent fight but Ribery, Nasri and Benzema would run out of steam at the final hurdle as Germany would finally win that elusive trophy, after their 2-1 win.
Team of Euro 2012
Neuer – Debuchy, Badstuber, Rami, Alba – Shirokov, Schweinsteiger, Kroos – Robben, Ribery, Benzema
Lloris, Lahm, Marchisio, Błaszczykowski, Afellay, Gomez, Lewandowski
Did Themselves Proud
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