Earlier this week, England captain Wayne Rooney hit his 45th and 46th international goals for England. Nevertheless, debate ensues between different camps on how good a player Rooney has been during his career. That question cannot be answered with tangible and objective supporting facts. What can be answered, though, is how important a goalscorer Rooney has been for his country. Graeme Souness had stated, in a post-match discussion for Sky Sports, that Rooney cannot be considered an “England great” regardless of whether he beats Sir Bobby Charlton’s England goal-scoring record. Is that a fair assessment? We will try to shed light onto answering that question by comparing Rooney’s scoring exploits for the Three Lions with that of the current two top goal-scorers, Sir Bobby Charlton and Gary Lineker.
Goals to Game Ratios
In the first instance, Rooney has amassed his 46 goals from 101 matches (0.455 goals per game). Charlton finished his England career on 49 from 106 games (0.46 goals per game). Neither had a better goals to games ratio than Lineker who scored 48 times from only 80 matches (0.6 goals per game). Had Lineker been given another 20 or so games at international level, it is likely that he would have finished closer to 60 goals.
Today, international friendly matches are games that a lot of players want to avoid. Managers focus on experimenting far more than they did in the past. Matches are arguably less competitive than they had been too. Nevertheless, goals scored during these matches weigh as much as those scored in more meaningful internationals. With that said, Charlton scored 21 goals during friendlies, almost 43% of his total goal tally. These friendlies do not include the British Home Internationals tournaments though. Today, such a tournament may be classified as a “friendly” tournament but it definitely was not back in the day. Lineker, on the other hand, scored 26 times, a whopping 54% of his total goals, during international friendlies. Rooney has scored 14 goals during international friendlies. That figure is 30% of his total goal tally. Rooney’s goals during friendlies also reflects the earlier assertion about the importance of friendlies in modern football.
Whilst Charlton is probably the only player between the three who would have ended his career with an international medal, all three have grabbed headlines during the tournaments that they took part in. In terms of European Championships, Charlton scored once in qualifiers and once in the Finals tournament during his career. Lineker scored 7 times during qualifiers but never managed to score a goal during either of the two tournaments he took part in. Rooney, though, enjoys the European Championships. He has scored 10 times, till date, during qualifiers and 5 times during the Finals tournaments he has participated in.
In terms of World Cups, Lineker is England’s record goal scorer with 10 goals and is considered one of the greatest goal-scorers in World Cup histories, hitting 6 and 4 goals in consecutive tournaments. That figure is almost 21% of his total goals tally for his country. He added another 5 during the two qualification campaigns that he took part in. Charlton scored 5 times during World Cup qualifiers and added another 2 during the World Cup in 1966. Rooney has had mixed fortunes during World Cup campaigns. He has been prolific during qualifiers, hitting 16 goals. But he has been extremely goal-shy during the Finals, as illustrated by his solitary goal, during the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
Scoring Important Goals
Some players score goals whilst others score important goals. For the purposes of this analysis, we have defined important goals as scoring the final equalizing goal of the match or scoring the match-winning goal. For instance, if a team wins 2-0 then the goal-scorer of the first goal would be considered the match winner. But if a team wins 2-1 then the goal-scorer of the 2nd goal would be considered the match-winner.
With the above parameters in play, Charlton scored 16 “important goals” during his England career. In other words, on 16 different occasions, his goals directly contributed to draws or wins for his country. Lineker, though, salvaged draws or victories on 22 different occasions. That means 46% of his goals for England were crucial as opposed to 33% of Charlton’s goals. Between the three, Wayne Rooney has had the fewest crucial goals for England with 13 of his goals (28%) falling within the category.
Rooney is undoubtedly set to break Sir Bobby Charlton’s England goal-scoring record, sooner rather than later. It’s also likely that he will become England’s most capped player before he retires. As a goal-scorer, his scoring ratio for his country is as good as Charlton’s. Rooney has not “wasted” his goals during international friendlies either. However, his goals have been the least crucial when it came to deciding the outcome of matches when compared to his two counterparts. Gary Lineker holds the honor for being the most influential goal-scorer between the three. Even if he is not England’s record goal-scorer, Lineker is arguably England’s most important goal-scorer, a tag he has further cemented with his impressive 10 goals during two World Cup Finals. Rooney, though, will remain the most important goal scorer of his generation for his country and its hard not to consider him as one of England’s most impressive internationals of all time. But its unlikely he should be talked about in the same vein as the likes of Charlton, Shilton, Sir Bobby Moore, or Lineker, purely based on the notion that his contributions have not resulted in anything of notable significance for his country – or not yet at least.
Barcelona’s Lionel Messi continues to break goal-scoring records by the match. His performances have meant that soon enough there will only be his own records to better rather than that of his predecessors. If it wasn’t for the Argentine, Cristiano Ronaldo’s scoring heroics would have had a more long-term place in the record books. At the same time, both Rademel Falcao and Robin van Persie are virtually scoring at a rate of 2 goals every 3 games. There had been a time when scoring 1 goal every 2 games was considered the target for top strikers all over Europe. However, during the past two seasons, the four aforementioned individuals have really raised the bar when it comes to goal scoring. As silly as this may sound, is that group of four simply the most clinical finishers in football? One would be hard-pressed to bite his lip and take a step back and analyze things closely before answering that.
Whilst goals are the single most important measure of a striker’s ability, is it really fair to compare players playing at different clubs, receiving different levels of service and taking a varying amount of shots on goal? In order to fairly assess a striker’s “deadliness” in front of goal, we will take into account two factors. Firstly, we will assess how often the said player has shots on target in respect to the total number of shots he takes. This will reflect their accuracy. Subsequently, we will assess the ratio with which the said player converts the shots on target into goals. Combining the two variables and weighing them according to their importance will provide us with a figure which would reflect their conversion in front of goal. In order retain a level of integrity we will compare strikers across the top four rated leagues in Europe and examine statistics from the 2011/12 season as well as the on-going 2012/13 campaign. We will only consider players who have scored a minimum of 15 league goals during the period in question.
Bear in mind that assessing the difficulty of shooting opportunities no doubt plays a role but due to the intricacy involved and the lack of available data in the public domain, it has not been considered within the methodology of this study. Similarly, one school of thought may suggest that taking into account the amount of time a player’s team is in the opposition’s final third should play an indirect role at the very least. If a player’s side is taking the game to the opposition consistently then the player would be more prepped for taking his chances. However, if the team sits back and hits on the counter then the player’s anticipation and concentration levels must be at a higher than usual level and must be taken into account. This resembles the argument that goalkeeper’s, playing at top clubs, who face one or two opportunities a game must sometimes be heralded as even “better” than a keeper in the thick of the action, due to their higher concentration and motivation levels. But as there is no general consensus on agreeing upon or quantifying this element, it also has been left out, despite having been applied during the research stage of the study. Furthermore, failing to score a certain number of goals at this stage of the current season would count against the culprit, whilst hitting a certain number of shots on target would not go un-noticed.
Ultimately one always wonders how a player would fare had he been receiving the sort of service he would be getting at “insert top of the table club”. The goal of this exercise is to attempt to create a more level playing field when it comes to comparing the finishing ability of players wherever they may be playing.
The Bundesliga has emerged as one of the most exciting leagues in Europe. An excellent ownership structure, financially sound clubs, rising attendances, consistent success on the pitch as illustrated through its gaining of an additional Champions League spot and some of the best young players in all of Europe are just some of the reasons why. Add to that Pep Guardiola’s decision to take over Bayern Munich next season and its easy to see why the spotlight is firmly on the league.
Mario Gomez fulfilled the criteria of the research the best and found himself at the top of the list of clinical finishers in the league over the past 18 months, although his lack of game time this season did count against him on the overall scale of things. In fact, Gomez had the best shots on target ratio between all the players analyzed in all 4 leagues, keeping 59% of his shots on target. His conversion ratio was also impressive, scoring 47% of the time once he had kept the shot on target. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar came second in the Bundesliga, keeping 50% of his shots on target, whilst going on to convert 49% of those chances into goals. However, he has under-performed this season and this counted against him in the final standings. Vedad Ibisevic rounded up the top 3, with Leverkusen’s consistent striker Stefan Keissling coming a close fourth and Robert Lewandowski fifth in the rankings. If the study was simply based upon goals scored then Huntelaar would have finished first, with Lewandowski, and Gomez in second and third place.
In Italy, the man that stood out was Inter Milan’s Argentine striker Diego Milito. He has found a new lease of life during the past 18 months and converted an outstanding 56% of his shots on target into goals. In simple terms, as long as Milito keeps the shot on target then more likely than not he will score. He is 1 of only 2 players in Europe to have that sort of record. Edinson Cavani came in second overall with 46% of his shots on target and 48% of those shots on target converted. Miroslav Klose finished third, converting 49% of his shots on target into goals. Udinese stalwart, Antonio “Toto” Di Natale suprisingly finished a lowly seventh, despite scoring 37 goals during the past 18 months. This was largely due to the fact that he converts a lowly 34% of his on-target shots into goals.
In England, only three of the final nominees break the 50% barrier when it comes to keeping shots on target and they are led by a Manchester United goal-scoring hero. Surprisingly, it is not the United striker you are thinking about. It isn’t even the second United striker that you’re thinking of. It’s Mexican super-sub Javier Hernandez. Chicharito keeps 52% of his shots on target and subsequently goes on to convert 46% of them. Chelsea’s Frank Lampard is the most impressive midfielder in between all the players assessed within any of the leagues. He converts 49% of the chances that he has kept on target. Sunderland’s Steven Fletcher and Swansea’s Spanish talisman Michu fall into the next slots just ahead of Manchester City’s Edin Dzeko who edges in ahead of van Persie, largely due to the fact that he converts a slightly higher percentage of his shots on target into goals. You might be surprised that players like Chelsea’s newly signed Senegalese striker, Dembe Ba, do not possess as good a conversion rate as you would have thought. Ba only converts 35% of his shots on target into goals, a similar figure to England’s Wayne Rooney, although that is still ahead of Fernando Torres who converts only 28% of his shots on target. The Spaniard has the lowest conversion rate between all the players assessed and that reflects some of his tame finishing even when the shots are on target and “test” the opposition goalkeeper.
Liverpool’s Luis Suarez fares even worse than Torres on the overall scheme of things as he only keeps 36% of his shots on target, going on to convert 31% of those into goals. Other players who don’t make the list partly because they failed to hit 15 goals during the period include two English strikers, Danny Welbeck and Daniel Sturridge. Welbeck keeps 41% of his shots on target but only converts 23% of those into goals. Sturridge, who considers himself a center forward keeps 36% of his shots on target and goes on to convert 34% of those opportunities into actual goals.
Last but not least, Spain’s La Liga is home to Europe’s most clinical striker and needless to say he’s Argentine. Chances are 95% of you just named the wrong player. Lionel Messi only comes in second in La Liga’s rankings well behind his compatriot Gonzalo Higuain. Real Madrid’s Higuain is one of only two players in all of Europe who convert into goals more than 50% of the shots they had kept on target. The other, of course, was listed earlier and was Inter’s Diego Milito. Higuain betters Milito’s conversion rate as he scores an incredible 59% of shots that have been kept on target. Lionel Messi comes in second, keeping 56% of his shots on target. What makes that rate even more impressive is the fact that he’s taken over 300 shots in compiling that percentage. His conversion ratio stands at 46% which is still among the highest in Europe, and considering the range of shots he takes might be a little undervalued. Roberto Soldado and Falcao follow in the next two spots. Both have proven to be consistent goal scorers in recent years wherever they have played. Soldado converts 47% of his shots on target into goals, a rate better than four-time Ballon D’Or winner Messi. Cristiano Ronaldo does feature on the list however his numbers are not as impressive as one may have thought. He keeps 44% of his shots on target, no doubt hindered by the fact that he takes so many long range shots. He goes on to convert 35% of his shots on target into goals, possibly slightly hindered by the previous fact again. In terms of midfielders, Barcelona’s Cesc Fabregas has impressive numbers. He keeps 56% of his shots on target, and goes on to convert 38% of them into goals.
Now comes the interesting part where all the numbers are crunched into the formula in order to produce the results. As stated earlier, each factor is giving a weighing variable, and there are points to be gained and lost for the number of shots taken as well as failure to hit certain targets in the current season in order to provide as much balance as possible.
The Top 35
As evident above, Gonzalo Higuain is the undisputed king when it comes to being clinical, finishing on 90 points (from 100). What is telling is that 3 of the top 4 are Argentines, firmly giving the national side a potency that makes them among the favorites to lift the upcoming World Cup in Brazil next year. Mario Gomez (79 points) splits Milito (82) and Messi (78). Although it must be said as the season goes on if Gomez fails to recover from injury he will undoubtedly lose his spot to Messi, even if the Argentine continues at exactly the same ratio as he’s performing.
Whilst the analysis takes into account the factors illustrated above, it has laid the groundwork for more intense research in the future. It is recommended to weigh the difficulty of the type of shots each player has taken.
A special thanks to Follow @liaBIGPUNov for his mathematical and football insight.
As Euro 2012 dawns upon us, football supporters, analysts, and commentators have undertaken months of preparations in order to get ready for the tournament in Poland/Ukraine. Getting accustomed to pronunciations and playing backgrounds is just a couple of aspects that needed attention. Whilst players like Cristiano Ronaldo, Arjen Robben, Mario Balotelli and Frank Ribery are established enough to expect them to star at the event, each country has a group of players who have quietly made enough noise to be highlighted by football connoisseurs but maybe not by the couch football fan. We’re going to highlight one such player from each team in order to keep an eye out for during Euro 2012.
Ivan Perisic (Croatia)
The Borussia Dortmund attacking midfielder is only 23 years old and has made a solid start to his first season with the reigning two-time German champions, scoring 7 goals in a Bundesliga campaign where he found himself making an impact off-the-bench more than he would have liked. Perisic gives options across the midfield and is likely to find himself playing a similar role that he has been accustomed to with his club during the past season. What he does offer though is goals. He has scored over 31 goals during the last two club campaigns in Belgium and Germany.
Petr Jiracek (Czech Republic)
Already an established international midfielder, he is seen as the current hope of the generation after the golden one that had emerged in Czech Republic. Now 26, he made his international debut in September 2011, and scored a vital goal in the Euro 2012 play-offs against Montenegro. Wolfsburg pounced to sign him during the January transfer window as it was expected that his value would soar with an impressive tournament in Poland/Ukraine.
Andreas Bjelland (Denmark)
A strong center back who finished the season playing in Denmark’s Superliga with Nordsjaelland, he has signed on to join Twente after Euro 2012. He is yet another potential star who has already been scouted adequately enough and moved to a new club before the tournament has kicked a ball. Bjelland has displaced Simon Kjaer as the likely partner for Daniel Agger, such has been his progress during the past 18 months. At a push, he is also able to fill in at full back as well as central midfield. He scored his first international goal against Australia in a recent friendly in June.
Danny Welbeck (England)
The Manchester United striker impressed Sir Alex Ferguson during a loan spell at Sunderland in the 2010/11 season. That ensured his position in the first team for United during the recently completed campaign. He is usually praised for his team-work and off-the-ball movement more so than his goal-scoring prowess. He scored 12 goals in 40 matches for his club in all competition and netted his first international goal against Belgium during England’s final friendly before Euro 2012. He is expected to lead the line during Wayne Rooney’s absence through suspension.
Mathieu Debuchy (France)
The Lille full back has emerged as a consistent and sometimes spectacular player in Ligue 1 during recent seasons. He does pitch in with a few goals from right back and has already scored his first international goal recently. He is expected to start for Laurent Blanc’s side against England in Bacary Sagna’s absence. Nevertheless, it had been speculated that Debuchy may have displaced Sagna as first choice right back before the Arsenal defender’s unfortunate injury. He has been scouted by Manchester United during the past season.
Mats Hummels (Germany)
The former Bayern Munich reject has emerged as one of the leading central defenders in European football during the past two seasons. Forming a solid center back partnership with Nevan Subotic at club level, he has been unable to dispose either of Per Mertesacker or Holger Badstuber at international level yet, even though calls are increasing for his inclusion. In terms of overall attributes, he is arguably a better player than either of those two but his lack of international experience has counted against him. Whilst he is expected to start as 3rd choice center back, if he is to get a lucky break and come onto the pitch, expect him to take the opportunity with both hands. Currently rated in the €15m range.
Ioannis Fetfatzidis (Greece)
The miniature midfielder is adept in an attacking role or a place on the wings. He has been playing a central role for Olympiacos during the past two league campaigns. Calls for his inclusion in the Greece starting line-up have been increasing. He already has 3 goals to his name for his country. Nevertheless, he may have to be satisfied with a place on the bench initially, but watch out for his introduction. He faced a similar growth hormone deficiency as Leo Messi.
Claudio Marchisio (Italy)
The Juventus midfielder is known for his goals from midfield. He has consistently improved his tally season on season and finished the recent campaign with 9 goals in Serie A. He is expected to play next to Danielle De Rossi and Andrea Pirlo in central midfield and will be the one Prandelli looks for in making late runs into the box. He will aim to add to his solitary international goal to date.
Ibrahim Afellay (Holland)
Even though Afellay, known as Ibi to his club team-mates, is playing for one of the best club sides around, he has slipped under the radar, so to speak, during the past two seasons. Having joined in hype from PSV Eindhoven, he enjoyed a quiet first 6 months at Barcelona before being ruled out for the majority of the 2011/12 campaign through injury. That may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Oranje fans and Bert van Maarwijk alike. Afellay has looked fresh and hungry during recent friendlies and has cemented a place in the starting line-up at the likely expense of Dirk Kuyt.
Ludovic Obraniak (Poland)
The French-born Polish international was a Ligue 1 winner with Lille before joining Bordeaux. He is an attacking midfielder who can play on the wings too, although he lacks blistering pace. He has always scored goals at every level and already has 5 goals in twenty-odd internationals. He will be a key creative force for Poland during Euro 2012 and his set piece acumen may be key in deciding how far the Poles can progress.
Nelson Oliveira (Portugal)
The young Benfica striker is seen as the most naturally gifted striker to come through the ranks of his country for decades. One of Portugal’s biggest downfalls during the past 20 years has been the lack of a truly world class finisher. Whilst Oliveira is not at that level yet, there is no doubt with his natural instincts for goal-scoring, he may have a good chance at breaking that hoodoo. He is likely to start as a back-up option but with the pressure Paulo Bento is under in the “Group of Death”, Oliveira may find himself on the pitch sooner than he would have imagined.
James McClean (Ireland)
The Sunderland winger has been the wildcard entry into Ireland’s squad. Trapattoni largely stayed loyal to the core of players that helped his side qualify but it was too difficult to neglect McClean’s emergence during the last 5 months of the season. The Italian has tried McClean at left wing during his international debut in May and it is likely that he will provide an option on either wing off the bench.
Roman Shirokov (Russia)
The 30 year old Zenit central midfielder can play as a holding player, deep-lying player or in central defence, although it is likely that he will play in midfield for Russia as he has done throughout his career. What he offers is late runs into the box and an eye for goal. He recently scored 2 goals against Italy in an international friendly in Zurich. As the Russian strikers may have trouble scoring too many goals, it is likely that their progress may depend on players like Shirokov popping up with important goals.
Jordi Alba (Spain)
One of the last truly “unknown” quantities in the Spain national side. The Valencia left-sided player is on Barcelona’s shopping list and is expected to join them later this summer. He is currently valued circa €15m and offers surging runs from a full back position. His defensive capabilities are better than one would expect for someone of his stature and size. He is equally adept at playing on the left wing. He is seen as the long-term replacement for Joan Capdevila at international level.
Ola Toivonen (Sweden)
The Finish-born PSV Eindhoven striker is seen as one of Sweden’s main goal threats. He scored the winner against Holland in the Euro 2012 qualifier which effectively sealed Sweden’s spot in the tournament. It is likely that he will start for his country giving captain Zlatan Ibrahimovic a freer, deeper, play-making role in the side. He has scored 35 goals during his 3 years at PSV.
Andriy Yarmolenko (Ukraine)
The left-footed Dynamo Kiev forward is one his nation’s main goal-threats during Euro 2012. He is able to play a more withdrawn role too. His international scoring record is impressive with 8 goals in 20 matches although he has not scored during his past few games. With the problems Oleh Blokhin is facing with selection in goal, it is likely that players like Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka may have to play at their full potential if Ukraine is to progress from the group stages.
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